Arsenal vs PSG Prediction: A Thrilling Clash at the Emirates, Who Will Move Closer to the Final?

Ria Sartika Senin, April 28, 2025 Comment

A thrilling showdown awaits at Emirates Stadium as Arsenal host Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) in the first leg of the UEFA Champions League semi-final 2024/2025. While many are predicting an Arsenal victory, PSG is certainly not coming to London to roll over. Let’s dive into the predictions and analysis of this exciting clash!

Arsenal vs PSG Stats: Key Insights Ahead of the Match

According to the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal are the favorites with a 44.8% chance of winning, compared to PSG’s 29.4%. The remaining 25.8% chance is for a draw.

There’s an interesting fact: Arsenal have never lost to PSG in European competitions! In their five previous encounters, Arsenal won twice and drew three times.

On the other hand, PSG has a poor record when playing away against English clubs in the Champions League. In their last six matches against English teams, PSG have lost five times. They’ve suffered defeats against Manchester City, Newcastle, Aston Villa, and, of course, Arsenal.

With all these stats, it’s clear that PSG faces an uphill battle, especially against a side like Arsenal, who have been dominant in Europe recently.

Arsenal: On Fire, Ready to Capitalize on Home Advantage

Mikel Arteta’s men are in exceptional form in the Champions League this season. They are unbeaten in their last eight games, with seven wins and one draw. This is their second-best run in the competition, just behind their unbeaten run in the 2005-06 season, which took them to the final.

Arsenal have also led the scoreline for 53% of their total match time in the Champions League this season, the highest percentage of any team in the competition.

Defensively, Arsenal have been solid too. They have only trailed in 6% of their match time — one of the lowest percentages across all Champions League teams.

One player to watch is Bukayo Saka. The England international has been instrumental, scoring 9 goals and providing 6 assists in 16 Champions League appearances for Arsenal. This makes him the most productive English player in their first two seasons in the competition, and the most by a winger since Sadio Mané!

However, Arsenal will be missing Thomas Partey due to suspension. On the bright side, Mikel Merino and Ben White should both be fit to play after sitting out Arsenal's 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace in the Premier League. Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Magalhães, Jorginho, and Kai Havertz will not be available for this match.

PSG: Focused on the Champions League After Domestic Setbacks

PSG arrive in North London with high hopes, even though their recent form in Ligue 1 has been a bit rocky. They drew 1-1 with Nantes midweek and suffered a surprising 3-1 loss to Nice on Friday. However, with the Ligue 1 title already secured three weeks ago, PSG’s focus is firmly on the Champions League.

One of PSG's key players to watch is Ousmane Dembélé. The French winger has been directly involved in 10 goals in the Champions League this season (7 goals, 3 assists). If he contributes again in this game, he will match the record for the most goal involvements by a PSG player in a single Champions League edition, currently held by Kylian Mbappé (11 in 2020-21).

The speed and directness of PSG’s attackers have been crucial to their success this season. Four PSG players — Désiré Doué, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, and Dembélé — have averaged more than two successful dribbles per 90 minutes. This is the highest of any team in this year's competition.

An interesting side note: this will be just the third time in Champions League history that two Spanish managers will face off in the semi-finals. The previous occasions were Carles Rexach vs Vicente del Bosque (2001) and Pep Guardiola vs Luis Enrique (2015).

PSG are fortunate to have a full-strength squad with no injuries or suspensions. They will be at their best for this crucial tie.

Head-to-Head: Arsenal’s Strong Record Against PSG

Arsenal have a strong history against PSG in European competitions. In five previous encounters, Arsenal have never lost to PSG — with two wins and three draws.

In fact, Arsenal defeated PSG 2-0 at home in the group stage of this season's Champions League. This gives Arsenal a psychological edge going into this semi-final.

If Arsenal manage to win again in this semi-final, they would join the ranks of Manchester City, who were the only English team to have beaten PSG twice in one Champions League season (2020-21).

The Opta supercomputer also favors Arsenal for the overall outcome. In their simulations, Arsenal are predicted to win 44.8% of the time, while PSG have just a 29.4% chance of taking a lead back to Paris.

When it comes to winning the competition overall, Arsenal are now considered favorites to lift the trophy for the first time, with a 28% chance. PSG, on the other hand, has a 24% chance of winning the tournament, placing them as third-favorites behind Inter Milan.

Predicted Lineups

Arsenal (4-3-3):
Raya; White, Saliba, Kiwior, Zinchenko; Rice, Ødegaard, Merino; Saka, Trossard, Martinelli.

PSG (4-3-3):
Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Lucas Hernández, Mendes; Vitinha, Ugarte, Zaïre-Emery; Dembélé, Ramos, Barcola.

Match Prediction: Arsenal vs PSG

Looking at current form, head-to-head records, and squad strength, Arsenal appear to have the upper hand heading into this first leg. Their home advantage and strong momentum will be key factors in this match.

Final score prediction:
➡️ Arsenal 2-1 PSG

However, PSG shouldn’t be written off. They have the players and attacking style to surprise Arsenal, especially if they can exploit gaps in the defense.

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